First Warning: Next tropical system may be brewing

AUSTIN (KXAN) — After more than two weeks with no tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic basin, we’re seeing signs of increasing activity and the potential for the second named storm of the season.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season began June 1, and Tropical Storm Alex formed on June 5 before quickly becoming post-tropical.

The National Hurricane Center expects a cluster of clouds coming off western Africa will continue to head westward and potentially develop in the waters northeast of South America. As it stands the National Hurricane Center puts the chances of developing into a Tropical Depression at just 20%.

Potential of tropical development within 5 days

However, some of our longer-term computer models give higher odds of development within and beyond five days. In fact, the European Ensemble model shows a near-guarantee of a Tropical Depression (tropical system with winds less than 39 mph) forming within a week.

Probability of a Tropical Depression (Image: Weatherbell)

The odds of a Tropical Storm (winds 39-73 mph) are much lower, as you would expect, but still sit somewhere between 70-80%.

Probability of a tropical storm (Image: Weatherbell)

Gulf of Mexico impact?

It’s too early to say what, if any, impact we could see in the Gulf of Mexico. The general trajectory of the potential system could bring it into the Gulf of Mexico after July 3, but forecast accuracy is very limited this far out for system that hasn’t even formed yet.

2022 Atlantic Tropical Names List

Stay with the First Warning Weather team as we track the potential for development. If the storm does become a Tropical Storm and it would be named Bonnie.

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